The BJP’s strategy centered on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal and governance plank has been endorsed by the assembly poll results on Sunday. This has dashed the Congress’ hopes of revival in the Hindi heartland and strengthened the belief that the ruling party is likely to retain power for a third consecutive term in 2024.
The BJP took the risk of not projecting any chief ministerial candidate and instead focused on broader narratives highlighting the achievements of the Modi government. Despite initial doubts, this approach proved successful in the five state polls, similar to the outcome in the Karnataka elections.
The Congress had hoped that its victory in Karnataka signaled a turning point with the support of local leadership and welfare guarantees, challenging the BJP’s dominance. However, the results on Sunday clearly demonstrate that the “Modi magic” remains influential and can sway the outcome in states where the party has a strong organizational presence.
If anything, the BJP intensified its emphasis on the prime minister during these elections. Modi’s guarantees were featured in the party’s manifestos, and he actively campaigned in the poll-bound states (except Mizoram) to seek popular support for his welfare and development promises.
In Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, Modi addressed 14 rallies each, and he held five rallies in Chhattisgarh after the polls were announced. His presence was marked by enthusiastic supporters and large roadshows in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
The extent of the BJP’s victory in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh surprised many party leaders, as most exit polls had predicted a Congress advantage in Chhattisgarh and mixed forecasts for Madhya Pradesh.
Party leaders credit the success to a campaign devised by the central leadership, with Home Minister Amit Shah focusing more on Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The campaign tapped into anti-incumbency sentiment against the Bhupesh Baghel-led government in Chhattisgarh and countered perceived indifference towards the Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led government in Madhya Pradesh. The BJP’s ground work, involvement of regional leaders and MPs, including Union ministers, also played a significant role.
However, Chouhan’s campaign around his government’s schemes, particularly the “ladli bahna” scheme, and his emotional connection with voters helped him counter criticism and appeal to the electorate.
The BJP will find satisfaction in the Congress’ defeat in the three Hindi-speaking states, especially as the opposition party had highlighted the demand for a caste census to reach out to Other Backward Classes voters. The BJP also emphasized welfare measures, raising questions about whether it will continue to adopt such populist tactics to counter opposition parties.
With this victory, the BJP now holds power in most of North and West India, regions that played a crucial role in its consecutive Lok Sabha majorities in 2014 and 2019. The party had also secured a sweeping victory in the three Hindi-speaking states in 2019, despite losing them in the assembly polls in 2018. This suggests that the BJP’s ideological and governance platforms have gained even more support since then.
The only setback for the BJP in these elections came from Telangana, where the Congress achieved a stunning victory by capitalizing on anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi, pushing the saffron party to third place. However, the BJP can take solace in its highest-ever assembly vote share tally in Telangana, winning six seats and leading in two out of the 119-member assembly.
Having already lost power in Karnataka, the only southern state where it has ever formed a government, the BJP leadership will need to reassess its strategy in the five southern states where it has not been able to replicate its success in the rest of the country.
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